Property sales activity over 2022 began strongly before tapering once interest rates started to bite. We like SQM Research’s Report, which has confidence that house prices will rise in 2023 if the Reserve Bank pauses rate rises and inflation drops.
The Australian Government’s First Home Guarantee is also enticing otherwise-reluctant buyers into the market and the scheme is skewed to regional areas so we expect to see increased activity as more potential first-home buyers become aware of the guarantee.
Some regional areas saw drops in prices at the back end of 2022. To be fair, these areas were the most sought-after areas like Byron Bay, Bowral and the Central Coast. The falls in regional areas that had remained up almost 50% since the start of the pandemic look dramatic but what goes up must come down ‒ at least a bit. CoreLogic data shows the median house price movements in Regional NSW as -1.5% in 2022.
Our paradise of the Mid North Coast is slowly readjusting as prices stabilise across our regions. We are seeing buyers (especially cashed-up buyers from Sydney) taking the opportunity to make a tree change to the coastal hinterlands and rural areas. They are savvy buyers, they complete their due diligence and look for quality and potential.
The property market and interest rates
As interest rates climbed, we noticed many sellers put their plans on hold. This was both a blessing and a curse: a blessing because it meant that we had more competition for fewer properties and a curse because we couldn’t help many keen buyers.
Looking to the US, we see the inflation rate (the key reason for interest rate rises) hit a high of 9.1% in June 2022 before tapering to 6.5% in December. This rate is still not close enough to the desired Federal Reserve target of a band of 2% to 3% but we can expect that as the US could easily be tipped into a recession, the Feds will hold off on many more interest rate rises. We expect that Australia will follow the lead of the US and hold interest rate rises once inflation returns to more acceptable levels.
SQM Research’s Housing Boom and Bust Report for 2023 forecasts Australian capital city prices will rise between 3% and & 7% dependent on interest rates not going above 4%, inflation dropping to 5%, and unemployment staying below 5%.
Property experts’ predictions for 2023
The Australian property market is not a single entity and what’s happening in Wahroonga isn’t necessarily what’s happening in Gloucester. So while the information we’ve curated applies to Australia in general, be aware that you need on-the-ground knowledge from a local real estate agent before making a buy or sell decision.
So let’s see what the experts predict for 2023. If nothing else, it will be fun to read this in December 2023 to see how right or wrong they got it.
ANZ
Capital city property prices will drop by around 20% according to a recent ANZ report, before climbing to a more modest rate of 5% growth in late 2024. The decline in housing prices is not due to rising distress for borrowers; rather, it reflects lower borrowing power.
Shane Oliver, AMP
Oliver remarked recently that while the drop in home prices is easing, deflation is spreading beyond the capital cities of Sydney and Melbourne to the regions.
Many homeowners whose fixed-rate mortgages will end in 2023 will start to feel the impact of the interest rate rises.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CommBank)
CommBank, more optimistic than the other Big Four, predicts a fall in house prices of about 15% into 2023, with prices levelling by around June 2023.
National Australia Bank (NAB)
NAB is less confident about 2023, predicting that home prices could fall by as much as 23% as interest rates climb to 3.1%.
In good news for investors, the NAB report noted rents will rise by 3.5 per cent in the next 12 months and 3.8 per cent in two years nationally.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
The RBA predicts a fall of 11% over 2023 and by about 9% in 2024. While the RBA is intent on reducing inflation, the Board is wary of tipping the economy into a recession.
Westpac
More optimistic, Westpac property experts predict a fall in house prices of 18% to the end of 2023. Westpac refers to a ‘correction’ in the property market and that sounds about right to us. Think of the property market as returning to more normal levels.
Real estate statistics Australia
Australia is coming off the peak of a once-in-a-generation housing boom and property still underpins the Australian economy.
| Residential real estate | $9.5 trillion |
| Mortgage debt | $2.1 trillion |
| Household wealth held in housing | 57.8% |
| Monthly rate of decline in home values | -1.2% |
| 12-month growth rate regional markets | +6.6% |
Our predictions for regional NSW property in 2023
We know from experience that potential home buyers tend to pause their buying intention after each interest rate rise. However, once they adjust, they’re back in the market.
Leading property analysts agree that NSW regional real estate growth emphasis is now switching from seaside locations to inland regional areas ‒ as long as there is quality infrastructure, the lifestyle and work-from-home buyers continue to be active. Tree-change or hill-change, as some analysts call it, is the way ahead and Gloucester is looking good.
As John McGrath of ASX-listed McGrath Real Estate says: “if you’re thinking of buying, don’t bother trying to time the market. No one can pick the top or bottom ‒ even the professionals.”
Optimistic property experts are already predicting growth in the property market in 2023. Will you take advantage of any growth opportunities?
Can we help you with your Gloucester region property?
As a proud local, I’m here to guide you through the process of selling your home. I’ve done it myself and helped many families over my career. So give me a call; I’m here to help.
